Waterville, Maine 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS61 KGYX 241442 CCA
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1042 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will persist today as low pressure moves
towards New Brunswick, Canada. It will take until Sunday before
we get some slow improvement to the weather and temperatures.
It will be much warmer and brighter by the time we reach Monday
and the warming and drying trend will continue into the middle
of next week. Another period of unsettled weather is then likely
once again by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1040AM Update...No big changes needed but did increase PoPs slightly
over the next few hours based on radar trends and short term
guidance. Lapse rates are forecast to steepen in the low levels over
the next few hours, so there could be a few but brief heavier
downpours. On the marine front, plan to let the Small Craft Advisory
expire as planned at 11 AM.

600 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends.

Previously...
The latest RAP13 pressure analysis shows vertically stacked low
pressure located over eastern ME with a plethora of cloud cover
overhead along with areas of showers slowly pivoting
northeastwards. Some of this precipitation is continuing to fall
as snow across the higher elevations, as seen on webcams and
latest observations from the Mount Washington Observatory.
Patchy fog is also developing with some visibility restrictions.
Current temperatures range from the upper 30s to upper 40s from
north to south and readings will remain nearly steady through
the remainder of the night.

Cutoff low pressure will slowly retreat towards New Brunswick
Canada through tonight but lingering moisture combined with
passing embedded H5 vorticity maximums will result in a
continued chance for scattered showers throughout the day. Skies
will otherwise be mostly cloudy with high temperatures only
into the 40s and 50s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Forcing for ascent diminishes tonight, which combined with the
loss of weak daytime heating should confine most of the shower
activity to the mountains and towards the Canadian Border. Skies
may clear some south of the mountains, which will likely result
in the formation of fog as lows fall into the 30s and 40s from
north to south.

Sunday should feature drier conditions with just isolated
showers expected during the first half of the day along with a
few peaks of sunshine. A lingering cold pool aloft will likely
result in an increase of diurnally driven clouds and showers
during the afternoon. High temperatures will be a little warmer
with readings into the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Evening Update...No significant changes with latest NBM
guidance ingested. Looking at a warmer and dryer start to next
week before chances for showers return late week.

Upper-level low is expected to be farther away into the
Maritimes by Monday. While shower chances will trend downward
from what is expected for Saturday and Sunday, the low should
still be close enough to generate enough some lift, and low-
level lapse will be steep to result in 100-200 J/kg of low-
level instability on Monday. This should be sufficient enough
for isolated to scattered showers, mainly in the afternoon, or
least partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures continue to
warm with mid 60s to low 70s on Monday away from the coast.

Things further dry out from Tuesday through at least Wednesday
as ridging builds into the Northeast. The warming trend also
continues with highs expected to be mostly in the 70s, but the
gradient will probably be weak enough to allow the seabreeze to
move in pretty quickly to keep the coast a bit cooler. The high
pressure shifts off to the south and east by late week as an
upper trough takes shape over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes
that will head toward New England. As has been the case a lot
lately, shower chances increase toward next weekend, possibly as
early as Thursday as some ensemble members suggest an earlier
trough arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...IFR to LIFR restrictions will persist through this
morning at most TAF sites due to a combination of low ceilings
and FG/-RA. Conditions will gradually improve later this morning
at NH TAF sites back to MVFR and then VFR, except at KHIE where
IFR/MVFR restrictions will likely linger most of the day. Across
ME, conditions will be a little slower to improve but most sites
should improve back to at least MVFR by early this evening. FG
is likely to develop again tonight into Sunday morning, bringing
additional restrictions before improving again later Sunday.
Winds will generally be out of the northwest at 5-15 kts. No
LLWS is expected.

Long Term...Primarily VFR from Monday through the middle of
next week. The exception may be periods MVFR cigs on Monday
mainly at HIE and LEB. A few showers also remain in the forecast
for Sunday and Monday, but chances/coverage will probably be
too low for TAF mention other than HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure will continue to retreat to the
northeast of the waters through Sunday with northwesterly winds
of 10-20 kts and decreasing seas of 2-4 ft.

Long Term...Conditions look to remain below mostly below SCA
levels through at least the middle of next week with broad high
pressure over the NE. Southwest winds do increase toward late
week with high pressure sliding to the southeast of the waters,
but it`s uncertain if gusts will reach SCA levels.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Combs/Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Baron/Combs